Presentation of the IMF European Department’s Spring 2015 Regional Economic Issues Report on Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE)
“CESEE Outlook: Mind the Credit Gaps” http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/eur/eng/erei0515.htm
Growth outcomes and outlook for CESEE follow three distinct patterns: solid growth in Central Europe, Turkey and Baltic countries, sluggish growth in Southeastern Europe and recession in Commonwealth of Independent States. This three-speed activity reflects different responses across the region to lower oil prices, stronger euro area growth momentum and geopolitical tensions. Despite differences, however, the common theme across CESEE is sluggish credit growth and weak investment rates, which reflect uncertainties about the strength of global and euro area recovery, but also incomplete repair of private sector balance-sheets. Before the 2008/09 crisis, private debt stocks across CESEE increased much faster than GDP, opening up credit gaps, whereby the private debt-to-GDP ratios were lifted well above their long-term trends. The report explores the link between remaining credit gaps and differences in growth outcomes, focusing on the following questions: How much deleveraging has taken place? What determines the economic cost of deleveraging? What are the remaining debt-related risks facing non-financial private sector in CESEE? Where are CESEE countries in the credit cycle? How can CESEE countries grow out of debt over the medium term? What are the policy options to ensure smooth adjustment and robust recovery?
Senior Economist, Emerging Economies Division, European Department, International Monetary Fund
Economist, Emerging Economies Division, European Department, International Monetary Fund
Valentin Lazea, Chief Economist, National Bank of Romania
Date and time
Friday, May 15, 2015, at 10:30 a.m.
The Aula “Costin Murgescu” of the Romanian Banking Institute, 3, Negru Voda Street, Sector 3, Bucharest
To RSVP or for further information, please fill in the form mentioning as subject „Participare CESEE”.